Irish Unification Plebiscite Must Not Turn Into 'Another Brexit', Experts Caution

Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.

Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."